by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2022 08:34:00 AM
The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. Within exports of goods, the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials (notably petroleum and products as well as other nondurable goods), and nonautomotive capital goods. Within exports of services, the increase was led by travel and “other” business services (mainly financial services). Within consumer spending, an increase in services (led by health care and “other” services) was partly offset by a decrease in goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as food and beverages). Within nonresidential fixed investment, increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees.
Within residential fixed investment, the leading contributors to the decrease were new single-family construction and brokers’ commissions. The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail trade (led by “other” retailers). Within imports, a decrease in imports of goods (notably consumer goods) was partly offset by an increase in imports of services (mainly travel).
Real GDP turned up in the third quarter, increasing 2.6 percent after decreasing 0.6 percent in the second quarter. The upturn primarily reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and an upturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in residential fixed investment and a deceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned down.
PCE increased at a 1.4% rate, and residential investment decreased at a 26.4% rate. The advance Q3 GDP report, with 2.6% annualized increase, was above expectations.
I’ll have more later …