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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued its Deceleration" to 15.8% year-over-year increase in July


by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2022 09:11:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (“July” is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued its Deceleration in July

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in the previous month. The 10-City
Composite annual increase came in at 14.9%, down from 17.4% in the previous month. The 20-City
Composite posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% in the previous month.

Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July.
Tampa led the way with a 31.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami in second with a
31.7% increase, and Dallas in third with a 24.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases
in the year ending July 2022 versus the year ending June 2022.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in
July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.8%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively.

In July, only 7 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a
forceful deceleration,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, while the
National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price
rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest
deceleration in the history of the index. We saw similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 14.9% in
July vs. 17.4% in June) and our 20-City Composite (up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June). On a monthover-month basis, all three composites declined in July”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is down 0.5% in July (SA).

The Composite 20 index is down 0.4% (SA) in July.

The National index is 65% above the bubble peak (SA), and down 0.2% (SA) in July. The National index is up 136% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 14.9% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 16.1% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 15.8% year-over-year.

Price increases were lower than expectations. I’ll have more later.

: After the Fed’s third 75-basis-point rate hike this year, here’s how to protect your wallet and portfolio

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