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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decelerate" to 13.0% year-over-year increase in August

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by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2022 09:12:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August (“August” is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Decelerate in August

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 13.0% annual gain in August, down from 15.6% in the previous month. The 10-
City Composite annual increase came in at 12.1%, down from 14.9% in the previous month. The 20-
City Composite posted a 13.1% year-over-year gain, down from 16.0% in the previous month.

Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in August.
Miami led the way with a 28.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a
28.0% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 21.3% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price
increases in the year ending August 2022 versus the year ending July 2022.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -1.1% month-over-month decrease in
August, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.6%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.9%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.3%.

In August, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments.

“The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued in our report for
August 2022,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National
Composite Index rose by 13.0% for the 12 months ended in August, down from its 15.6% year-over-year growth in July. The -2.6% difference between those two monthly rates of change is the largest
deceleration in the history of the index (with July’s deceleration now ranking as the second largest). We
see similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 12.1% in August vs. 14.9% in July) and our 20-City
Composite (up 13.1% in August vs. 16.0% in July). Further, price gains decelerated in every one of our
20 cities. These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022
and has been declining ever since.

“Month-over-month comparisons are consistent with these observations. All three composites declined
in July, as did prices in every one of our 20 cities. On a month-over-month basis, the biggest declines
occurred on the west coast, with San Francisco (-4.3%), Seattle (-3.9%), and San Diego (-2.8%) falling
the most.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is down 1.3% in August (SA).

The Composite 20 index is down 1.3% (SA) in August.

The National index is 64% above the bubble peak (SA), and down 0.9% (SA) in August. The National index is up 121% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 12.1% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 13.1% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 13.0% year-over-year.

Price increases were lower than expectations. I’ll have more later.

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