Goldman Sees US House Prices Falling 5% to 10%

This is a significant downgrade from Goldman’s “stall” forecast from just a few weeks ago. …

It now appears house prices are falling even though inventory levels are still historically fairly low (by measures of active inventory or months of supply). … Here is a look at existing home months-of-supply (inverted, from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through July 2022). Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.

The last three months are in black showing a possible shift in the relationship.