MarketWatch Premium: Could there be a stock market rally? Probably. Would it be the end of the bear market? Probably not.

The stock market’s low for the year on the last day in September is likely to be breached in this bear market, according to a contrarian analysis of market timer sentiment.

That’s because at no point in this bear market has there been the thorough-going pessimism and despair that often accompanies major bottoms — what many refer to as capitulation, or throwing in the towel.

We’ve…