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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey


by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from
one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending September 9, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment
for the observance of Labor Day.

… The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous
week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12
percent compared with the previous week and was 29 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit the six percent mark for the first time since 2008 – rising to 6.01
percent – which is essentially double what it was a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice
President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Higher mortgage rates have pushed refinance activity
down more than 80 percent from last year and have contributed to more homebuyers staying on the
sidelines. Government loans, which tend to be favored by first-time buyers, bucked this trend and
increased over the week, driven mainly by VA and USDA lending activity.”

Added Kan, “The spread between the conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate and both ARM and jumbo
loans remained wide last week, at 118 and 45 basis points, respectively. The wide spread underscores
the volatility in capital markets due to uncertainty about the Fed’s next policy moves.”

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($647,200 or less) increased to 6.01 percent from 5.94 percent, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 0.79
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.
The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.
The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 29% year-over-year unadjusted.
The purchase index is now only 8% above the pandemic low.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

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