by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2022 11:58:00 AM
On Friday, the average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.7% for zero points and top tier scenarios. This was the highest rate in 14 years and is close to the highest rate in over 20 years (above 6.76% will be the highest since early 2002).
Here is a graph showing the 30-year rate using Freddie Mac PMMS, and MND for last week.
Click on graph for larger image.
This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) over the last 5 years.
The following graph shows the year-over-year change in principal & interest (P&I) assuming a fixed loan amount since 1977. Currently P&I is up about 52% year-over-year for a fixed amount (this doesn’t take into account the change in house prices).
This is above the previous record increase of 50% in 1980. This assumed a fixed loan amount – if we add in the year-over-year increase in house prices, payments would be up around 65% YoY for the same house.
This is one of the reasons I’ve argued in my real estate newsletter Housing: Don’t Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons.