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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.71 million SAAR in September


by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2022 10:10:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 1.5% in September

Existing-home sales descended in September, the eighth month in a row of declines, according to the National Association of REALTORS(R). Three out of the four major U.S. regions notched month-over-month sales contractions, while the West held steady. On a year-over-year basis, sales dropped in all regions.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, retracted 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million in September. Year-over-year, sales waned by 23.8% (down from 6.18 million in September 2021).

Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.25 million units, which was down 2.3% from August and 0.8% from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace – unchanged from August and up from 2.4 months in September 2021.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in September (4.71 million SAAR) were down 1.5% from the previous month and were 23.8% below the September 2021 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.25 million in September from 1.28 million in August.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was essentially unchanged year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2021.

Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.2 months in September from 3.2 months in August.

This was close to the consensus forecast. I’ll have more later.

Beth Pinsker: Don’t have $13 million? The lifetime estate- and gift-tax exemptions for 2023 still matter to you.

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