Q3 GDP Tracking: 1% to 2% Range

Overall, the data since our last weekly publication and our updated assumptions on trade boosted our 3Q US GDP tracking from 0.8% q/q saar to 1.5% q/q saar. [September 30th estimate]emphasis added

Following this morning’s data and yesterday’s revisions, we have lowered our Q3 GDP tracking forecast by 0.5pp to +0.9% (qoq ar). [September 30th estimate]

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.4 percent on September 30, up from 0.3 percent on September 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.4 percent and -7.6 percent, respectively, to 1.0 percent and -4.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.10 percentage points to 2.20 percentage points. [September 30th estimate]