Q3 GDP Tracking: Close to 1%

On net, the data on retail trade and IP helped push our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate lower by 0.3pp to 0.8% qoq saar. Activity appears to be rebounding in the second half of the year off its first-half decline, but not by much. [September 16th estimate]emphasis added

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.1% (qoq ar). [September 15th estimate]

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.3 percent on September 9. After this week’s releases from the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent.[September 15th estimate]