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Thursday: Unemployment Claims

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by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 08:44:00 PM

Thursday:
o At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 218 thousand from 213 thousand last week.

o At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeekAgoGoalNew Cases per Day255,33260,783<=5,0001Hospitalized225,40628,571<=3,0001Deaths per Day2356381<=5011my goals to stop daily posts,27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

NOTE: Cases have declined by more than half, and deaths lag cases – so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (good news, but still too high).
Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

The Fed: The Fed’s forecast for rising unemployment signals recession ahead. Or does it?

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